Seraphine:
Honestly, I think you've done a fabulous job at creating a villain that actually feels like a real human being. It might be difficult to write someone who simultaneously wants to create a safe, happy place for people but is also so self-absorbed. She seems like someone who could get swept up in greed after a little while, maybe making some risky decisions because of that. The only part that I don't like is her downfall. She's a smart character, right? And despite her obvious flaws she's extremely dedicated to the idea of The Perfect Lakeshore, so I don't think that she would make her own citizens into (technically) slaves. Her favoritism of certain races could land her into trouble though.
But back to the being smart part. I really don't think she'd make a mistake like turning her people against her. She knows how politics works and is very good at manipulation. Wouldn't it be all the more impressive if she was outsmarted and exposed for the person she really was? Like some sort of a cat and mouse game. It could be her arrogance that lets Estelle get the upper hand on her. It doesn't even have to be a publicly known about thing. In the citizens eyes she could have just stepped down so that Estelle could take the throne since it was her right.
She seems like a very ambitious person that's not afraid to use people to get what she wants. But what's really motivating her? Is there a particular reason she's so self-absorbed? What is her personal motivation that gives her that confidence and drive? She's bound to have made mistakes or have been looked down upon or humiliated. How does she react in those moments? What kind of a temper does she have? How does she feel about Alfonse and his family? How does she feel about Estelle? Did she care about them at all? Were they necessary sacrifices? Did she dislike or resent some of Alfonse's decisions or policies as a leader? Does she have any doubts about herself? Why does she want to make the Lakeshore so perfect?
She is a great character and I think her arc would be amazing if she and Estelle mirrored each other (more on that later).
Michelle:
Compared to Serphine, Michelle seems almost underdeveloped. Which makes me think that she's a side character and not the main focus? But even so, she influences the other characters and background history greatly. She sounds like a very passive character; very gentle and soft. But other parts of her give the impression that she's strong-willed and self-assured. Such as the decision to leave Alfonse with their kids. That's a tough decision and takes a lot of strength to make. A character that was just a soft pushover wouldn't have done that, but she's a committed mother who had the responsibility of two children on her shoulders. I think those traits of hers would shine through better if you gave her a few subjects she felt passionately about or political discussions where she had a noticeable presence, then she'd feel more defined. As it is, she's a bit bland.
She and Alfonse have very similar personalities, and relationships like that don't tend to last. Couples that are practically the same get too close to each other, like two black holes. They lose sight of themselves as an individual and then the relationship explodes and becomes a mess. So what keeps them together? What are their differences that let them be individuals? What do they do to distance themselves and give each other space? Are they actually very different people that seem alike at the surface?
Why did she fall in love with Alfonse? What caught her eye and how did she react when she realized she was serious about him? Even if you don't think these will be important to the story, just knowing about them as an author will make them bleed naturally into the story and make her a firmer, more established character.
What kind of parent was she? What kind of impressions did she have on Estelle and Elias? Did she treat them differently? Elias seems to take after his parents more than Estelle does, is that because Elias and Michelle shared more interests with one another and spent more time together? Or that when Elias was a baby Michelle stopped giving Estelle as much attention? Was Estelle influenced by other people then her mother? How did Michelle feel about that? What if that person was Seraphine? Would that affect some of her reasoning for leaving Alfonse?
Was her relationship with Alfonse unstable at the time of the incident? Were they at a disagreement about something? What if that something was about what Estelle wanted to do with her life and they disagreed how to handle it? How did she hear about the scandal? What was her reaction? Was she in public at the time? Did she yell? Cry? Both? Was it a quiet, shaking rage? How did she change after that? What effect did that have on her relationship with her children?
Alfonse:
The pattern I'm seeing with the characters is passivity, which isn't bad I suppose. Especially if you want Estelle and Seraphine to mirror each other. They are the only ambitious and strong and active characters in the story, while the others are more quiet and sweet and small, and I think it would be a waste not to turn them into mirrors.
Alfonse seems like the kind ruler and good father type that could be easily blinded by his prejudice against science and his strong urge to make people happy. I think it would also make sense that he would be very stubborn, unwilling to shift his point of view as soon as he gets set on it. I mean, he is in politics. He can't be all cuddles and hugs. He's bound to have some sharp spikes in the places where he isn't soft.
It's very clear that he treasures his wife, and so it must have destroyed him when she ended up believing the scandal. What did he say to defend himself? What kind of proof did Seraphine have? What did she say that made Estelle doubt her? Or what did Alfonse say that made Estelle believe him? His wife leaving him would have definitely affected his confidence. What does he do to cope? Where does he go? Why doesn't he get the throne back after Seraphine is removed? Does he turn to alcohol? Get lost in his poetry?
In any family, a certain amount of tension is expected. There are always going to be differences of opinions between them and certain grudges, memories, or misunderstandings that hide below the surface well into the future, even if no ones recognizes it. Take me for example; when I was a young kid, my dad mentioned my weight a lot, calling me chubby and making it out to be a bad thing. As I am much older now, I know that girls of that age are generally more chubby and there was nothing wrong with me at all. But I still struggle with my body image and I'm very self-conscious. It got to the point where I refused to swim for so long that I've forgotten how to. My dad loves me very much and he has no idea that he did any of this, and he probably never will.
What I'm saying is, that for all Alfonse means well, he and Estelle are very different people and even without meaning to he could say or do something that would rub her the wrong way or hurt her. With his job he must be very busy. He probably wasn't able to take a lot of time out for his daughter when he should have. She has to have a few reasons to resent her dad despite loving him.
I think this would also give you an excellent opportunity to give Seraphine and Estelle a relationship. Seraphine and Alfonse are close, right? Close enough that people would believe that this affair had happened, close enough that Michelle knew Seraphine. So why wouldn't his kids know her too? Maybe while Elias was closer to his mother, Estelle took to Seraphine. Maybe she looked up to her. Maybe Seraphine, even though she hated herself for it, grew to care about Estelle? This would give their new relationship (being adversaries) a lot more meaning. It could make Estelle question herself and her father. It could make her doubtful and make her final decision to fight against Seraphine harder and stronger and symbolic of her finally overcoming all her doubts and figuring out what she wanted.
Alfonse, much like Michelle, doesn't appear to be a very important character. Or, in better words, he doesn't seem like a character that actually shows up beyond being mentioned. I think he's pretty well defined, but a bit too passive and gentle. I'm not saying to make him the opposite of those traits, I actually think you should keep them apart of him, but add a little something else to him. He got elected for a reason. Because he stood for something. Because there were things he wouldn't back down on. And some people didn't vote for him because they didn't like those things.
I also think that the fact that Alfonse, Michelle, and Elias are such soft, passive people, that it makes a lot of sense that Estelle would have hung out with Seraphine and admired her. Maybe Seraphine was the reason that she butted heads with her father every now and again?
How did Alfonse feel about Seraphines accusations? Was there any truth to them? How did he feel about her? Did Seraphine manipulate him into feeling something for her? Did she not have to manipulate him?
Estelle:
I know I keep coming back to Seraphine, but I really can't stress enough how important it is to have a balanced cast. Right now, she overshadows everyone else. She's got more development and she's more interesting and she feels real. And that's really, really good! But your other characters should feel just as real.
Now, how many female protagonists have a fiery personality and want to do the right thing and always get in trouble? A lot. And most of them are underdeveloped, their writers getting stuck on the "this character is super hotheaded" train and not making room for them to be multi-dimensional and act like actual people.
Don't get me wrong, I absolutely understand the joy factor of writing these types of characters, and I'm not saying to scrap her personality altogether, but she can be so much more than just a combat heavy badass with anger issues. Your story deserves better than that. You have an amazing premise and a wonderful antagonist to pit everybody against and you clearly have the ability to make something awe-inspiring!
The protagonist is the person the readers see the world with and will spend the most time with. They can make or break your story. When reading about Estelle's flaws, I noticed a lot of things that just seemed to be tacked on for the sake of having flaws. It doesn't seem like any of those actually effect her ability to defeat Seraphine, which doesn't make sense.
You have the perfect opportunity to make your protagonist and antagonist mirror each other. They already seem rather similar. But while Seraphine remains glued to her old habits and ideals, Estelle could overcome them and defeat her. Because she would have matured and understood where Seraphine was coming from and known how to beat her. Estelle needs to be more than angry. She needs to want more than just justice. She needs to want to do this for herself and because she doesn't have a choice. There has to be a lot pf pressure on her to get things right, she has to have doubts and make mistakes.
She seems awfully young to be taking on so much responsibility, so maybe her mother shut down after Alfonse's alleged scandal and Estelle had to pick up the pieces and take her mothers place both in raising Elias and in politics. Her chance at pursuing something else could have been squandered because of this new change. And just imagine the pain she must feel having to see such a sweet and lively person she cares so much about turn into a hollow shell. To see the person she possibly admired figuratively die.
She should be angry, she has every right to be angry, but she shouldn't JUST be angry. She has people to look after now, a country to reclaim, and probably very little support to do it. She has to be strong and motivated and kind. Her mother wouldn't raise her to be a war-waging soldier, but as a smart and thoughtful princess that would one day hold the hopes of thousands of people on her shoulders. She needs to be able to rely on other people, especially her brother. They lost both parents in all this after all; their father in the divorce and their mother to pain. So they must be hurting and grieving the loss of a loving family and picturesque future. They're gonna need each other.
But perhaps she takes Elias for granted?
Elias:
Among all of your characters, I believe Elias needs the most work. For someone who is very close to the main character and clearly important, he doesn't make a lot of sense. Elias is portrayed as a nervous breakdown waiting to happen, and yet he's a wonderful mediator and the best pianist the whitewaters have heard? That would imply that he has the confidence to get between two arguing people and assert himself as well as perform for a large crowd. Neither of those make sense for someone who is as nervous and anxious as he is.
Instead, what would make more sense is that he's a shy, quiet guy that's bad at communicating. He can't talk one on with people very well and is very awkward. He prefers to speak with his music and he does so very well. Performing is nothing so long as he doesn't have to speak to anybody.
This whole resistance thing clearly wasn't his idea. He seems perfectly satisfied with a quiet, peaceful life of humble music. Not at all the type to spear-head a strategic unit as of a resistance group. But he does it anyway. For his sister. Maybe he didn't think that they needed to get involved? They're still living a good life and they can do whatever they want now. They don't have to be tied to the throne, always on display and burdened with the responsibility of a royal family. So he goes along with his sister even though he doesn't want to because that's what he's always done. This gives you the perfect opportunity to give him a character arc.
Maybe he finally has had enough of his sister ignoring his needs? Maybe he reveals to her all that she's unknowingly done to him or made him sacrifice? And then they come out stronger and closer and more determined to end this battle?
So, he's atheist? Because he believes that the Myllirian gods are fact? Atheism is believing that there are no gods, that they don't exist. So he wouldn't be atheist, he'd just be really sure of his religion.
Seraphine kidnaps him and he gets temporarily paralyzed. But why? Not only is it out of character for Seraphine, it doesn't make sense for the plot either. So he loses his legs for a bit, which is no real biggy. He can still do what he loves, he still made it out alive, and it isn't permanent. If that's in there just for angst then you should really take it out. It doesn't do him any favors as a character and would just distract you from the actual story. It'd be better to just have him grow as a person through out the book. To be able to talk to people better and stand up for himself. Maybe he has a therapist that helps him with his social anxiety.
How does he feel about his sister's desire for revenge? He doesn't believe that his father is innocent at first, right? What if he never believed he was? What if that was one of the things he reveals to Estelle when he's had enough of her? That he thinks the whole mission is stupid? That he thinks that they shouldn't risk other people's live on the pride of a worthless person like their father? Maybe he resents the fact that his father didn't fight harder, that he didn't try to convince them or visit?
Maybe he hated that even though Alfonse and Estelle didn't get a long all the time, he still worried about her constantly and made time to talk with her about her future? Maybe he resented that she didn't like that? That she didn't appreciate how much more their father cared about her? And then she got all the attention from Seraphine. And now she dragging him and a bunch of other people into her personal mess with her old mentor. Maybe he hates how she never listened to him play and was always too busy studying or talking about the things that she liked.
Maybe he hated that he couldn't hate her and that he still wanted to help her.
This would progress his story arc and add the proper tension and angst to your story. Plus, it makes sense for the characters. Both he and Estelle would grow from it.
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I know you only wanted a critic on your characters (and this technically counts) but I couldn't help but notice a few things that didn't make sense.
If Alfonse is 28 and Elias is 16, then Elias was born when Alfonse was 12 years old and Estelle was born when he was 10. The parents should be in their 40's or 50's at this point. Seraphine isn't a parent, but being so young and to have such power she would probably be criticized for it.
- The Election (or just the government in general)
So Alfonse ran for governor of the Lakeshore and won, meaning that he has a certain number of years to serve before the next election. And yet, everything is described as though they became the King anf Queen of the Lakeshore and have absolute power over it. The Governor responds to someone else who is in a higher power then them. Maybe one of the thing he did during his term was separate the Lakeshore from the main country, making it its own thing and then became the ruler? Thus why Seraphine couldn't just wait for the next election to ruin his image.
Well, that's all for me. This is a tad bit longer than I expected. Guess I got carried away. Let me know if this helped in at all. Best of luck with your writing!